Super Bowl Sunday

The Crew took last week off to rest up, re-charge and gather ourselves for what is fast becoming the most anticipated Playhouse of the year, Super Bowl Sunday, a bet, knock on wood, with which we have had some success in recent years. We had Green Bay (-3) last year, New Orleans (+4.5) the year before that and, ugh, Arizona (+6.5) three years ago, when The Crew, native Phoenicians and long-suffering Cardinals fans, collectively experienced pain they would not wish upon al-Qaeda after the Steelers scored the game-winning TD in the final seconds. The year before, Super Bowl XLII, represented perhaps our finest hour, however, as we placed and lost seven separate prop bets. If memory serves, in fact, we didn't come close on any of them. Pretty difficult feat indeed. This year, we're hoping to mirror some of our most recent successes, but as the four loyal readers of The Playhouse can attest, long winning streaks aren't exactly our thing.

Big announcement from The Crew. You can now track our success, or lack thereof, online, via Wagerminds.com, where you can set up an account and have your record versus the spread tracked, free of charge. Encourage all your friends who say the hit 70 percent of their bets to do the same and you will find out what we could have already told you: They are lying.

A couple thoughts/stats before we get to the Super Play of the Day, plus five prop bets sure to go wrong...

Some dude name Birdman, who apparently is a rap producer, is telling very gullible people that he made a $5 million bet on the Patriots. To which we say, 'Show us the ticket, dogg,' -- there's no way it happened. First and foremost, it would present tremendous risk for the casino, exposing it to huge losses because it'd be unlikely they could take enough Giants money to offset the margin. Secondly, no way any casino would book that kind of bet from a recreational bettor. In rare circumstances they might do it from a big-time professional, wanting to know where the sharp money was going, but even then it'd be unlikely at that amount...

Every Patriots Super Bowl in the Tom Brady era has been decided by three points. No surprise, therefore, most shops, both on The Strip and offshore, opened at Patriots -3. It has since dropped to -2.5 in most places, and we are starting to see some -2s out there, most notably at the Wynn properties. Only three of the previous 45 Super Bowls have had a closing spread of less than a field goal. If you are interested, here's a historical look of all the closing numbers...

The Giants have won five games in a row. Courtesy of RJ Bell of pregame.com, the odds of them doing that, based on the point spreads of those games, was 54-1...

Also according to Bell, Nevada has won money on the Super Bowl 19 of the last 21 years, winning over $20 million over the last five years. That includes the last time they lost, four years ago, when both the public and professionals loaded up on the Giants, who closed as a 12-point underdog. To put that $20 million in perspective, consider that Nevada casinos made $193 on penny slots -- IN NOVEMBER!!

According to Covers.com, Las Vegas is expected book over $87 million in Super Bowl bets, which would break the record set, yes, when these two teams last met in SB XLII. Those, of course, are legal, traceable bets. The amount bet illegally will dwarf that. But, again, there's no way sports gambling should be legalized and taxed. It would be horrible policy...

Some of the more interesting prop bets on Sportsbook.com:

• Yes or no Will Chad Ochocino catch a pass? Yes -200, No +160
• Heat first quarter points (-4.5) over/under Patriots points
• Raptors-Heat margin of victory (-2.5) over/under distance of first touchdown pass
• Length of national anthem over/under 1:35. Over is -145
• MVP to thank first: Owner +400, no one +250, family +500, God +125, teammates +200
• Big Ten team points (-61.5) over/under Tom Brady passing yards

Five props The Crew will lose money on:

• Tom Brady over 39.5 pass attempts
• Brady under 2.5 touchdown passes
• Victor Cruz receptions (-0.5) over Rangers + Flyers goals
• Rob Gronkowski under 75.5 total receiving yards
• First punt of the game over 44.5 yards

Super Play of the Day

Not going to waste your time. The Crew, like seemingly everyone else, loves the Giants, who have more playmakers on offense and the much better defense. No value in the money line, so take the points. New York +3.