8.31.2013

August 31, 2013

If the last couple days prove anything, it's that college football is both undeniably terrible and uniquely intoxicating.

Terrible because of the NCAA, whose continued dominion over the game has reached farcical levels, as its recent suspension of Johnny Manziel laid bare for all to see. And intoxicating because flaws and all we just can't seem to get enough, as evidenced by the more the 13 hours we will spend in front our television today, or for that matter, every Saturday till Christmas.

As bettors, we try not to get caught up in such contradictions. A team either covered the number or it didn't, and the rest of the noise is immaterial. Still, it's becoming harder and harder to ignore the blinding hypocrisy that unfolds each Saturday on campuses across the country.

While allusions to plantations have and always will be foolish and grossly opportunistic, it's not hyperbole to say that few people in this country are exploited more than college football players at big time universities, considering that money that such programs generate. It's undeniable.

But this hasn't stopped some people from claiming that players are rewarded, and handsomely: Free room and board. Anyone who argues that needs to get serious about their life. Much like you don't want to paid every two weeks in Vietnamese dongs (real currency) because its conversion rate to the dollar is currently .000047, most college football players see very little value in having a diploma.

That others do is entirely beside the point. A dong is basically worth as much as a diploma to these guys. (So, please, Seth Davis, please stop holding up Emeka Okafor as proof that the system works. He's one out of thousands, and that was like ten fucking years ago).

This argument is not new. But the explosion of money in recent years is, and it's why the system has never been in more need of complete overhaul than it is right now.

But we digress. We could write 5,000 words about the ways in which the NCAA is morally corrupt.

Today marks the start of a five month stretch that make the other seven tolerable. And as a very wise man said recently, 'There's something to be said about putting a third of your net worth on a football game, and it's called livin'.'

With that in mind, what follows is our full and comprehensive preview of 2013 college football season -- which is neither full nor comprehensive (The Playhouse President and CEO has a three-month old child and barely has enough time to go to the bathroom, much less write material for blog that has a readership of four).

Predictions - DO NOT use these to make wagers. They will be wrong. (Odds from Sportsbook.com)
  • Heisman - Marcus Mariotta, Oregon. 10-1 If the Ducks can weather the departure of Chip Kelly to the NFL, they will contend for a national title and put up a bunch of points in the process - two key factors working in Mariotta's favor. Plus, Oregon has unreal cheerleaders. Manziel (6-1) is likely to put up insane numbers playing his second season in Kevin Sumlin's system, but given that college football writers are assholes, many of them will be disinclined to vote for him again - which is absurd, but's how old white dudes operate. Dark horse: Brett Hundley, UCLA, 50-1
  • National Champ - Alabama. 3-1. There's absolutely no value here, but it's hard to make a case for any other team at this point. Best talent. Best coach. Best Conference. Stanford (20-1) provides better value, and it has become a trendy pick among national pundits who write puff pieces about Manti Te'o and don't ask obvious follow-up questions.  But the Cardinal is not winning the national title, Pete Thamel. And while Urban Meyer is in the process of overhauling Ohio State's (5-1) already shady program into the full-fledged super max prison that he ran at Florida, he's not there yet.  Dark horse: Florida, 18-1.
  • Conference Champions -
    • ACC - Clemson. 2-1. The Tigers often disappoint in big games, but they are the class of the conference with loads of talent at the skilled positions, including quarterback Tajh Boyd and wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who will be attempting to bounce back from a string of injuries in 2012. Also have the best unis in football, easy.  Dark horse: Miami, 13-2.
    • Big 10 - Ohio State. 5-6. We really wanted to pick anyone but the Buckeyes, whose fan base is one of the most offensive in sports. But despite being a petulant a-hole, Meyer is a hell of coach and the rest of the conference is atrocious. Darkhorse: Northwestern, 12-1.
    • Pac 12 - Oregon. 1-1. As mentioned, Stanford is getting a bunch of run here, but we like the Ducks, who are returning 15 starters from a team that was a FG away from playing for the national title last year. Replacing running back Kenyon Barner, who seemingly arrived in Eugene during the Rich Brooks era, is a concern, but it's likely they have five guys on the roster that would start for any other team in the Pac. Also, Oregon's cheerleaders are amazing. Dark horse: Arizona State, 12-1.
    • SEC - Alabama. -120. See above. Dark horse: Florida 9-1
  • Season win totals -
    • Over - Washington. 7.5 (-105). After playing its home games last season at Century Link Field (Seahawks), Washington will open their newly renovated home tonight against Boise (whose fans will hopefully resist the temptation to put on their best pair of jean shorts and flood downtown this weekend.). Set on the banks of Lake Washington, Husky Stadium has always one of the most picturesque scenes in football, but the facility had become antiquated and nearly obsolete. Don't underestimate the impact that the new stadium will have on the team. On the field, Washington return 17 starters, including 10 on offense, and if they can solve their o-line woes, then may be Keith Price will be less of a train wreck this season. 
    • Under - Florida State. 10. The Seminoles return just 10 starters and will start a freshmen at quarterback. According to the recruiting experts (of which there is no such thing), Florida State has bolstered its depth to extent to which its simply a re-load every year, not a rebuild. But that hasn't been the case in a long time, so we'll have to see that to believe it. 
  • Games of the year - Don't wait for the week of the games, get on these lines now
    • Arizona St -3.5 vs. Wisconsin (Sept. 14) - The Big Ten has historically struggled in early season games on the West Coast, especially at night. This has beat down written all over it. 
    • Northwestern +7.5 vs. Ohio State (Oct. 5) - Classic let down scenario. Ohio State plays Wisconsin at home the week before,  and Northwestern has a bye.  
    • Clemson -1.5 vs. Florida State (Oct. 19) - This spread will likely be in the 4-4.5 range by the time it kicks. 

Couple thoughts before getting to the Super Play of the Day ...

The SEC coaches choose Aaron Murray over Manziel for pre-season conference honors. Go fuck yourself. Manziel led the SEC in rushing as a quarterback, gaining over 1,400 yards. He also passed for more than 3,600 yards and accounted for a total of 47 touchdowns...

Alabama has been favored in in 41 straight games...

Former Caesar's sportsbook director Todd Fuhrman says the sharp money today is on UL Lafayette (+10.5), Western Kentucky (+5.5) and UL Monroe (+23), while dudes like us are playing Bama (20.5), LSU (-4) and Northwestern (-5.5)...

Oregon has great cheerleaders...

We'll never forget the Tim Tebow era in New England...


Super Play of the Day

**Disclaimer: These were amazing last year, so it's fade city this season

Clemson +1.5

other picks

Cal +5.5
Virginia +2.5




No comments:

Post a Comment