Sept. 26, 2009

Saturday's mailbag:

Hey Joe, Brian from Tucson here- love your write-ups. I got two games for ya- Miami @ VaTech...can the Hokies stop Harris and the canes offense?? I also locked Fresno st @ +16.5...can they lengthen the game with the run game and defense....?

Brian,

The boys in the office are leaning Canes. Va Tech's rush defense has been dreadful. We think they will have their hands full with the ever-improving Jacory Harris. It's not an official play, but we can't argue with laying the points. In terms of Fresno, we're staying away from that one, especially coming off an emotional loss.

Thanks,

The Crew

Thank God Nevada is bad


Mizzou came through for us last night. To be more precise, Nevada's affinity for turning the ball over came through for us, but, hey, those were the types of breaks that were going against us the first couple weeks of the season. We'll take it.

Today is a big day in the Playhouse, as we are set to release our first ever Super Play of the Year (like other handicapping sites, we do not expect this to be the last one this season, though, clearly, the title suggests otherwise). We don't tread lightly into this territory, but we haven't had a sure thing like this since the last time we played truth or dare. Without further adieu:

Playhouse Super Play of the Year (Part I of whatever how many):

The Las Vegas Sports Consultants, for those of you who don't know, put out the lines each week. Each book in town may tweak them slightly, but it's pretty rare when there is a major deviation. Obviously, they do a great job, because those casinos aren't really in business of losing money, regardless of your buddy who says he always hits 75 percent of his bets.

But like everyone else, they are human and prone to mistakes. Their biggest one so far this year occurred Monday morning, when they released Arizona as a one-point favorite on the road at Oregon St. The market place has moved the line substantially, but we still see a lot of value here.

The Beavers are a solid football team, whose only loss came last week against Cincinnati. Anyone who watched that game knows two things: a) The Bearcats are really good and b) Oregon St got royally screwed by a pass interference call late that completely change momentum.

Arizona has a decent defense, but they have struggled to muster a balanced offense against the likes of Central Michigan and No. Arizona. In fact, there are making a change at quarterback today, with Nick Foles getting his first career start. So, let's get this straight: We get the better team, who's at home, and the opposing quarterback is making his first start? Can't get to a window fast enough. Oregon St. -2.5.


Other play:

Don't get this line move in Iowa's direction. Penn St, no matter what they tell the media, is seeking revenge for last season's lost to the Hawkeyes, which kept them out of the BCS title game. And the Nittany Lions are nasty in whiteout conditions. Penn St. -9.5